Shelby County
Texas — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Shelby County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 55.7, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 4.83 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.10 / yr | $271K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 20.84 / yr | $885K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.67 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $125K |
| Drought | Medium | 23.33 / yr | $298K |
| Lightning | Medium | 65.25 / yr | $266K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.47 / yr | $56K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.63 / yr | $741K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.30 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $172K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.18 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | Low | 4.10 / yr | $145K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Shelby County?
Shelby County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 55.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Shelby County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $271K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Shelby County compare to other Texas counties?
Shelby County ranks #123 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Shelby County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.