Shelby County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Shelby County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 55.7, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Shelby County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 55.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.83 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $271K in expected annual loss and about 1.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Shelby County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Shelby County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1966, including 8 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Shelby County ranks #123 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 4.83 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.10 / yr | $271K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 20.84 / yr | $885K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.67 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $125K |
| Drought | Medium | 23.33 / yr | $298K |
| Lightning | Medium | 65.25 / yr | $266K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.47 / yr | $56K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.63 / yr | $741K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.30 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $172K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.18 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | Low | 4.10 / yr | $145K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Shelby County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1966, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Flood (4), Fire (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| September 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Shelby County?
Shelby County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 55.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Shelby County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $271K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Shelby County compare to other Texas counties?
Shelby County ranks #123 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Shelby County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Shelby County since 1966, most often 8 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Shelby County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.