Jasper County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 61th
Jasper County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.1, 61th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Jasper County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 61.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 61st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Jasper County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.11 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $400K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $544K in expected annual loss and about 76.12 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 33K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jasper County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Jasper County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl (hurricane), declared in July 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Jasper County ranks #103 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $400K |
| Lightning | Medium | 76.12 / yr | $544K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.78 / yr | $278K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.30 / yr | $708K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.92 / yr | $594K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.71 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.03 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 2.09 / yr | $272K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.07 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | Low | 26.09 / yr | $57K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $457 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 1.55 / yr | $31K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $71K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jasper County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Flood (6), Fire (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Hurricane | Hurricane Beryl |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Laura |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storms Marco and Laura |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2017 | Hurricane | Hurricane Harvey |
| June 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 32 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jasper County?
Jasper County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 61th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jasper County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $4M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $400K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $544K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jasper County compare to other Texas counties?
Jasper County ranks #103 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jasper County had?
FEMA records 32 federal disaster declarations for Jasper County since 1973, most often 10 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Hurricane Beryl, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jasper County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.