Sullivan County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 71th
Sullivan County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 71.5, 71th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $29M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Sullivan County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 71.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 71st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $105K in expected annual loss and about 1.25 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $29M in expected annual loss for a population of 158K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sullivan County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Sullivan County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 3 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Sullivan County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.25 / yr | $105K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.25 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 50.28 / yr | $911K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.25 / yr | $20M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.69 / yr | $80K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $113K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.84 / yr | $859K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.07 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Hail | Low | 3.03 / yr | $145K |
| Drought | Very Low | 13.71 / yr | $20K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.07 / yr | $26K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $51K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sullivan County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Winter Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Associated Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| January 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall, Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sullivan County?
Sullivan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 71.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 71th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sullivan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $105K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $3M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sullivan County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Sullivan County ranks #25 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sullivan County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Sullivan County since 1973, most often 3 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sullivan County's $29M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.