Hardin County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 71th
Hardin County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 70.7, 71th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Hardin County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 70.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 71st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Hardin County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $685K in expected annual loss and about 1.10 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.50 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 1.58 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 27K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hardin County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Hardin County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 16 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Hardin County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | High | 1.10 / yr | $685K |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.50 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.58 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.44 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 13.74 / yr | $646K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $124K |
| Lightning | Medium | 60.85 / yr | $208K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.14 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | Low | 14.07 / yr | $95K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.78 / yr | $31K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 5.21 / yr | $14K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.42 / yr | $15K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hardin County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (16), Flood (4), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hardin County?
Hardin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 70.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 71th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hardin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (High, $685K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hardin County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Hardin County ranks #26 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hardin County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Hardin County since 1973, most often 16 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hardin County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.