Lawrence County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 70th
Lawrence County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 69.7, 70th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lawrence County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 69.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 70th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lawrence County's expected losses come from tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.54 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $997K in expected annual loss and about 61.94 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 44K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lawrence County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Lawrence County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 14 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Lawrence County ranks #27 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.54 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | High | 61.94 / yr | $997K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.16 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.76 / yr | $570K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.77 / yr | $96K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.29 / yr | $6M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.63 / yr | $63K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.42 / yr | $382K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $92K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.86 / yr | $529 |
| Drought | Low | 15.66 / yr | $22K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.95 / yr | $59K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lawrence County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (3), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| August 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lawrence County?
Lawrence County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 69.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 70th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lawrence County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $6M EAL), Lightning (High, $997K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lawrence County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Lawrence County ranks #27 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lawrence County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Lawrence County since 1973, most often 14 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lawrence County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.