Carroll County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 73th
Carroll County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 72.8, 73th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Carroll County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 72.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 73rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Carroll County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 2.32 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 28K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carroll County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 14 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Carroll County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $10M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.32 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.43 / yr | $5M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.58 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 57.97 / yr | $496K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.85 / yr | $218K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.18 / yr | $5K |
| Drought | Low | 8.91 / yr | $164K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $71K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.84 / yr | $51K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.54 / yr | $428K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.18 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.80 / yr | $65K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Tornado (3), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 72.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 73th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $10M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Carroll County ranks #23 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1971, most often 14 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.