Overton County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 22th
Overton County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 22.2, 22th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overton County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 22.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 22nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Overton County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 57.22 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $76K in expected annual loss and about 9.79 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $310K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 22K.
Beyond physical exposure, Overton County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Overton County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 7 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Overton County ranks #81 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 57.22 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.79 / yr | $76K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $310K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.26 / yr | $971K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.02 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.23 / yr | $994K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.33 / yr | $427K |
| Drought | Low | 10.29 / yr | $78K |
| Hail | Low | 2.91 / yr | $169K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.61 / yr | $50K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $27K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.07 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $41K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Overton County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (7), Flood (4), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| March 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Overton County?
Overton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 22.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 22th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Overton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $76K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $310K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Overton County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Overton County ranks #81 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Overton County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Overton County since 1969, most often 7 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Overton County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.