Morgan County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 19th
Morgan County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 19.1, 19th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Morgan County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 19.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 19th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Morgan County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $26K in expected annual loss and about 1.68 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.16 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $100K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 21K.
Beyond physical exposure, Morgan County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Morgan County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Morgan County ranks #82 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 1.68 / yr | $26K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $100K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.63 / yr | $80K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $381K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.26 / yr | $586K |
| Lightning | Low | 59.33 / yr | $151K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.22 / yr | $759K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.64 / yr | $37K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $17K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.14 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Very Low | 18.73 / yr | $11K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.06 / yr | $34K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Morgan County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (4), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Morgan County?
Morgan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 19.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 19th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Morgan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $26K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $2M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $100K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Morgan County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Morgan County ranks #82 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Morgan County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Morgan County since 1973, most often 10 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Morgan County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.