Smith County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 19th
Smith County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 18.8, 19th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Smith County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 18.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 19th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $2K in expected annual loss and about 0.74 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $392K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.23 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Smith County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Smith County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 10 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Smith County ranks #83 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $392K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.23 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.96 / yr | $699K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Low | 11.14 / yr | $112K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.07 / yr | $5M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 5.89 / yr | $43K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.26 / yr | $172K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.95 / yr | $144K |
| Lightning | Low | 58.38 / yr | $126K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $11K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.71 / yr | $18K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Smith County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (3), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2020 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Smith County?
Smith County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 18.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 19th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Smith County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Very Low, $2K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $392K EAL), Tornado (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Smith County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Smith County ranks #83 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Smith County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Smith County since 1975, most often 10 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Smith County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.