Cumberland County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Cumberland County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.2, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cumberland County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 67.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cumberland County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.16 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.35 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $203K in expected annual loss and about 9.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 61K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cumberland County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Cumberland County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 13 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Cumberland County ranks #31 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.16 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.35 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | High | 9.63 / yr | $203K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 59.97 / yr | $614K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.32 / yr | $13K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.19 / yr | $970K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $150K |
| Hail | Low | 3.07 / yr | $356K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.68 / yr | $113K |
| Drought | Low | 24.72 / yr | $190K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.43 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $58K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cumberland County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (4), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| March 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and |
| April 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cumberland County?
Cumberland County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cumberland County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $203K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cumberland County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Cumberland County ranks #31 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cumberland County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Cumberland County since 1969, most often 13 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cumberland County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.