Herkimer County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 60th
Herkimer County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 60.0, 60th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Herkimer County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 60.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 60th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Herkimer County's expected losses come from riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 3.50 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $12K in expected annual loss and about 1.35 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $154K in expected annual loss and about 29.46 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 60K.
Beyond physical exposure, Herkimer County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Herkimer County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 9 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 62 New York counties, Herkimer County ranks #43 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.50 / yr | $18M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.35 / yr | $12K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 29.46 / yr | $154K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.44 / yr | $181K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.01 / yr | $269K |
| Lightning | Low | 25.51 / yr | $250K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $300K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 5.26 / yr | $635K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.23 / yr | $808K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.59 / yr | $162K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $91 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.08 / yr | $254K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.69 / yr | $70K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Herkimer County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (5), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| July 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Herkimer County?
Herkimer County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 60.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 60th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Herkimer County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $18M EAL), Landslide (Low, $12K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $154K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Herkimer County compare to other New York counties?
Herkimer County ranks #43 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Herkimer County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Herkimer County since 1974, most often 9 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Herkimer County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.