Warren County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 62th
Warren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 62.3, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Warren County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 62.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 23.55 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 5.09 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $14K in expected annual loss and about 1.56 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 66K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Warren County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 4 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 62 New York counties, Warren County ranks #41 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 23.55 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 5.09 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.56 / yr | $14K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.00 / yr | $16M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $511K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $685K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.22 / yr | $115K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 21.35 / yr | $77K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.06 / yr | $538K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.11 / yr | $911K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.20 / yr | $206K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.80 / yr | $132K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Flood (4), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| June 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| October 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 62.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Landslide (Low, $14K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other New York counties?
Warren County ranks #41 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1976, most often 4 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.