Cayuga County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 62th
Cayuga County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.5, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $24M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Cayuga County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 61.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Cayuga County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $726K in expected annual loss and about 1.10 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 1.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $152K in expected annual loss and about 21.81 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $24M in expected annual loss for a population of 76K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cayuga County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Cayuga County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for flood events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred (hurricane), declared in October 2021.
Among 62 New York counties, Cayuga County ranks #42 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.10 / yr | $726K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.00 / yr | $19M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.81 / yr | $152K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $363K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.45 / yr | $825K |
| Hail | Low | 2.02 / yr | $394K |
| Drought | Low | 1.37 / yr | $242K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $263K |
| Lightning | Low | 30.49 / yr | $229K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $1K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.37 / yr | $275K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $876K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $18K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $113 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.04 / yr | $279K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $653 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cayuga County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred in October 2021. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Hurricane (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2004 | Snowstorm | Snow |
| August 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cayuga County?
Cayuga County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cayuga County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $726K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $19M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $152K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cayuga County compare to other New York counties?
Cayuga County ranks #42 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cayuga County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Cayuga County since 1972, most often 5 for flood events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, declared in October 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cayuga County's $24M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.