Madison County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 59th
Madison County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 59.4, 59th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $23M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Madison County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 59.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 59th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 0.96 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $170K in expected annual loss and about 27.65 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $592K in expected annual loss and about 29.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $23M in expected annual loss for a population of 68K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Madison County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 8 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 62 New York counties, Madison County ranks #45 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.96 / yr | $19M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 27.65 / yr | $170K |
| Lightning | Medium | 29.03 / yr | $592K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.95 / yr | $254K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.50 / yr | $4K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $216K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $265K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.36 / yr | $506K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.90 / yr | $205K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.48 / yr | $584K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.43 / yr | $119K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $11 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Flood (5), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| July 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| June 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2005 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 59.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 59th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $19M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $170K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $592K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other New York counties?
Madison County ranks #45 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1972, most often 8 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $23M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.