Tioga County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 60th
Tioga County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 59.9, 60th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Tioga County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 59.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 60th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Tioga County's expected losses come from riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $17M in expected annual loss and about 2.11 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $5K in expected annual loss and about 0.53 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $260K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 48K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tioga County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Tioga County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred (hurricane), declared in October 2021.
Among 62 New York counties, Tioga County ranks #44 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.11 / yr | $17M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.53 / yr | $5K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $260K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.50 / yr | $79K |
| Lightning | Low | 31.16 / yr | $179K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $948K |
| Drought | Low | 0.54 / yr | $70K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.11 / yr | $220K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $183 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $90K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.32 / yr | $325K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.46 / yr | $230K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.27 / yr | $61K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 15.58 / yr | $6K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tioga County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred in October 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (6), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| October 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| June 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tioga County?
Tioga County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 59.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 60th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tioga County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $17M EAL), Landslide (Low, $5K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $260K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tioga County compare to other New York counties?
Tioga County ranks #44 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tioga County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Tioga County since 1972, most often 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred, declared in October 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tioga County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.