Ocean County, New Jersey Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NJ
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Ocean County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.2, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $204M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Ocean County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 96.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Ocean County's expected losses come from strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $39M in expected annual loss and about 4.38 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.38 events per year; and coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Very High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 3.65 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $204M in expected annual loss for a population of 637K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ocean County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Ocean County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 8 for hurricane events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Jones Road Fire (fire), declared in April 2025.
Among 21 New Jersey counties, Ocean County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 4.38 / yr | $39M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 9.38 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | Very High | 3.65 / yr | $19M |
| Lightning | Very High | 30.14 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.43 / yr | $100M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 6.77 / yr | $7M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.40 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.20 / yr | $13M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $7M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.78 / yr | $7M |
| Drought | Low | 7.09 / yr | $318K |
| Hail | Low | 1.44 / yr | $366K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $2K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.24 / yr | $1M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ocean County has received 33 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Jones Road Fire in April 2025. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Snowstorm (6), Fire (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2025 | Fire | Jones Road Fire |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| April 2021 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 33 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ocean County?
Ocean County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.2 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ocean County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $39M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Coastal Flood (Very High, $19M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ocean County compare to other New Jersey counties?
Ocean County ranks #6 of 21 New Jersey counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ocean County had?
FEMA records 33 federal disaster declarations for Ocean County since 1965, most often 8 for hurricane events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Jones Road Fire, declared in April 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ocean County's $204M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.