Union County, New Jersey Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NJ
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 95th
Union County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 95.5, 95th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $163M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Union County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 95.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 95th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 6.39 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 11.04 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $117M in expected annual loss and about 3.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $163M in expected annual loss for a population of 575K.
Beyond physical exposure, Union County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Union County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 9 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida (hurricane), declared in September 2021.
Among 21 New Jersey counties, Union County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 6.39 / yr | $6M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 11.04 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.43 / yr | $117M |
| Lightning | Very High | 33.66 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 9.36 / yr | $7M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $13M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 0.74 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $6M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.04 / yr | $5M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.56 / yr | $4M |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.76 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.99 / yr | $22K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $215 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.43 / yr | $87K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Union County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Remnants of Hurricane Ida in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Severe Storm (5), Flood (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| November 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Union County?
Union County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 95.5 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 95th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Union County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $6M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $117M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Union County compare to other New Jersey counties?
Union County ranks #8 of 21 New Jersey counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Union County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Union County since 1965, most often 9 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Union County's $163M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.