Middlesex County, New Jersey Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NJ
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 98th
Middlesex County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.8, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $282M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Middlesex County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 97.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 98th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 6.95 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 10.59 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 1.04 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $282M in expected annual loss for a population of 863K.
Beyond physical exposure, Middlesex County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Middlesex County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 9 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida (hurricane), declared in September 2021.
Among 21 New Jersey counties, Middlesex County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 6.95 / yr | $14M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 10.59 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.04 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.18 / yr | $197M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 7.48 / yr | $8M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $20M |
| Tornado | High | 0.12 / yr | $10M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.84 / yr | $10M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $12M |
| Coastal Flood | High | 3.76 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 33.56 / yr | $743K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $376K |
| Drought | Medium | 3.04 / yr | $655K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.10 / yr | $8K |
| Hail | Low | 2.41 / yr | $181K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Middlesex County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Remnants of Hurricane Ida in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Severe Storm (5), Flood (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| November 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Middlesex County?
Middlesex County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.8 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Middlesex County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $14M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Middlesex County compare to other New Jersey counties?
Middlesex County ranks #2 of 21 New Jersey counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Middlesex County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Middlesex County since 1965, most often 9 for hurricane events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Middlesex County's $282M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.