Monmouth County, New Jersey Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NJ
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Monmouth County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.3, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $282M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Monmouth County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 96.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Very High risk — $91M in expected annual loss and about 5.81 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 6.66 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 31.54 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $282M in expected annual loss for a population of 643K.
Beyond physical exposure, Monmouth County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Monmouth County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 10 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida (hurricane), declared in September 2021.
Among 21 New Jersey counties, Monmouth County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Very High | 5.81 / yr | $91M |
| Heat Wave | High | 6.66 / yr | $24M |
| Lightning | Very High | 31.54 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 9.20 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.54 / yr | $110M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.70 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $14M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.18 / yr | $17M |
| Coastal Flood | High | 3.74 / yr | $8M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.84 / yr | $7M |
| Drought | Medium | 3.98 / yr | $725K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.21 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $535 |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.93 / yr | $148K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Monmouth County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Remnants of Hurricane Ida in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Snowstorm (4), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| December 2020 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Monmouth County?
Monmouth County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.3 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Monmouth County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Very High, $91M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $24M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Monmouth County compare to other New Jersey counties?
Monmouth County ranks #5 of 21 New Jersey counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Monmouth County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Monmouth County since 1965, most often 10 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Monmouth County's $282M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.