Patrick County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 21th
Patrick County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.9, 21th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Patrick County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 20.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 21st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Patrick County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $7K in expected annual loss and about 1.31 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Low risk — $4K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $278K in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 18K.
Beyond physical exposure, Patrick County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Patrick County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 4 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Patrick County ranks #75 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 1.31 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $278K |
| Drought | Low | 9.54 / yr | $279K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.17 / yr | $55K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $637K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.64 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $111K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 8.37 / yr | $18K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.19 / yr | $168K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $227K |
| Hail | Very Low | 4.76 / yr | $58K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 47.88 / yr | $53K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $9K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Patrick County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (4), Snowstorm (3), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| April 2006 | Fire | Bull Mountain Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Patrick County?
Patrick County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 21th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Patrick County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $7K EAL), Avalanche (Low, $4K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $278K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Patrick County compare to other Virginia counties?
Patrick County ranks #75 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Patrick County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Patrick County since 1976, most often 4 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Patrick County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.