Caroline County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 21th
Caroline County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.7, 21th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Caroline County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 20.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 21st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.10 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $926K in expected annual loss and about 4.21 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $505K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 31K.
Beyond physical exposure, Caroline County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Caroline County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 7 for hurricane events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Caroline County ranks #76 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.10 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 4.21 / yr | $926K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $505K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.52 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.53 / yr | $246K |
| Lightning | Low | 40.40 / yr | $163K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.35 / yr | $581K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.16 / yr | $126K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.22 / yr | $306K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $3M |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.76 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.11 / yr | $26K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.66 / yr | $26K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $42K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Caroline County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (7), Snowstorm (6), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| November 2011 | Severe Storm | The Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caroline County?
Caroline County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 21th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Caroline County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $926K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $505K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Caroline County compare to other Virginia counties?
Caroline County ranks #76 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Caroline County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Caroline County since 1969, most often 7 for hurricane events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caroline County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.