Caroline County
Virginia — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 21th
Caroline County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 20.7, 21th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.10 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 4.21 / yr | $926K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $505K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.52 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.53 / yr | $246K |
| Lightning | Low | 40.40 / yr | $163K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.35 / yr | $581K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.16 / yr | $126K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.22 / yr | $306K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.57 / yr | $3M |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 3.76 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.11 / yr | $26K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.66 / yr | $26K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $42K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caroline County?
Caroline County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 20.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 21th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Caroline County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL), Drought (Medium, $926K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $505K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Caroline County compare to other Virginia counties?
Caroline County ranks #76 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caroline County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.