Chesterfield County, Virginia Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · VA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Chesterfield County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.8, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $79M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Chesterfield County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 84.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Chesterfield County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $53M in expected annual loss and about 1.43 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $446K in expected annual loss and about 5.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $79M in expected annual loss for a population of 364K.
Beyond physical exposure, Chesterfield County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Chesterfield County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 10 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 133 Virginia counties, Chesterfield County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $7M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.43 / yr | $53M |
| Winter Weather | High | 5.26 / yr | $446K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.29 / yr | $3M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.13 / yr | $6M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.37 / yr | $767K |
| Lightning | High | 43.60 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.23 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.23 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Low | 5.77 / yr | $396K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.69 / yr | $67K |
| Hail | Low | 2.27 / yr | $305K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $47K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.47 / yr | $44K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Chesterfield County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Snowstorm (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2018 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| October 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Chesterfield County?
Chesterfield County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Chesterfield County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $7M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $53M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $446K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Chesterfield County compare to other Virginia counties?
Chesterfield County ranks #2 of 133 Virginia counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Chesterfield County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Chesterfield County since 1969, most often 10 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Chesterfield County's $79M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.