Wheeler County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 41th
Wheeler County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 41.3, 41th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Wheeler County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 41.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 41st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 66.23 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $279K in expected annual loss and about 0.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Wheeler County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Wheeler County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including 5 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Wheeler County ranks #145 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 66.23 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.63 / yr | $279K |
| Hail | Low | 8.21 / yr | $406K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.95 / yr | $83K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.20 / yr | $601K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.79 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.11 / yr | $448K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $63K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 48.16 / yr | $56K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.63 / yr | $20K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.50 / yr | $736K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $1 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wheeler County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1998, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (5), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| April 2009 | Fire | Magic City Fire |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wheeler County?
Wheeler County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 41.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 41th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wheeler County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $3M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $279K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wheeler County compare to other Texas counties?
Wheeler County ranks #145 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wheeler County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Wheeler County since 1998, most often 5 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wheeler County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.