Mills County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

5.6

National percentile: 6th

Mills County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 5.6, 6th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Mills County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 5.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 6th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $206K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $182K in expected annual loss and about 4.84 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $86K in expected annual loss and about 62.48 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.

Beyond physical exposure, Mills County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

History supports the rating: Mills County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 4 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.

Among 254 Texas counties, Mills County ranks #230 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $2M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 4K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Low $206K/yr
Low $182K/yr
Low $86K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Wildfire Low 0.00 / yr$206K
Hail Low 4.84 / yr$182K
Drought Low 62.48 / yr$86K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$13K
Tornado Low 0.38 / yr$340K
Winter Weather Low 4.16 / yr$17K
Heat Wave Very Low 8.84 / yr$67K
Lightning Very Low 47.46 / yr$50K
Cold Wave Very Low 0.74 / yr$165K
Strong Wind Very Low 1.46 / yr$97K
Riverine Flood Very Low 0.68 / yr$1M
Landslide Very Low 0.14 / yr$20
Ice Storm Very Low 0.49 / yr$1K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$2K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Mills County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Severe Storm (3), Hurricane (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
May 2024FloodSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storms
February 2021Severe Ice StormSevere Winter Storm
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
July 2011FireWildfires
March 2008FireWildfires
June 2007Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
January 2006FireExtreme Wildfire Threat
September 2005HurricaneHurricane Rita

Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mills County?

Mills County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 5.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 6th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Mills County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $206K EAL), Hail (Low, $182K EAL), Drought (Low, $86K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Mills County compare to other Texas counties?

Mills County ranks #230 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Mills County had?

FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Mills County since 1990, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mills County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.