Mills County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 6th
Mills County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 5.6, 6th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Mills County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 5.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 6th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $206K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $182K in expected annual loss and about 4.84 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $86K in expected annual loss and about 62.48 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mills County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Mills County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1990, including 4 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in May 2024.
Among 254 Texas counties, Mills County ranks #230 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $206K |
| Hail | Low | 4.84 / yr | $182K |
| Drought | Low | 62.48 / yr | $86K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $13K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.38 / yr | $340K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.16 / yr | $17K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 8.84 / yr | $67K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 47.46 / yr | $50K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $165K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.46 / yr | $97K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $20 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.49 / yr | $1K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mills County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1990, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Severe Storm (3), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mills County?
Mills County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 5.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 6th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mills County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $206K EAL), Hail (Low, $182K EAL), Drought (Low, $86K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mills County compare to other Texas counties?
Mills County ranks #230 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mills County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Mills County since 1990, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mills County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.