Concho County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 4th
Concho County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 4.5, 4th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Concho County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 4.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 4th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 55.42 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $82K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $215K in expected annual loss and about 4.10 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 2K.
Beyond physical exposure, Concho County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Concho County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 4 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 254 Texas counties, Concho County ranks #231 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 55.42 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $82K |
| Hail | Low | 4.10 / yr | $215K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.41 / yr | $169K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 9.16 / yr | $40K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 46.20 / yr | $49K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 4.26 / yr | $12K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.49 / yr | $86K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $40K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.36 / yr | $509K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $3 |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.16 / yr | $737 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Concho County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Hurricane (3), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Concho County?
Concho County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 4.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 4th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Concho County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $82K EAL), Hail (Low, $215K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Concho County compare to other Texas counties?
Concho County ranks #231 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Concho County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Concho County since 1993, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Concho County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.