Hartley County, Texas Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TX
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 33th
Hartley County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 33.1, 33th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Hartley County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 33.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 33rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Hartley County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 129.97 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 2.85 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $181K in expected annual loss and about 11.23 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hartley County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Hartley County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including 4 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms (severe ice storm), declared in February 2021.
Among 254 Texas counties, Hartley County ranks #163 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 129.97 / yr | $6M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.85 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.23 / yr | $181K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $246K |
| Hail | Low | 5.26 / yr | $727K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.10 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Low | 46.60 / yr | $179K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.66 / yr | $527K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $59K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $22K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.95 / yr | $13K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $960K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $4 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hartley County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1998, most recently Severe Winter Storms in February 2021. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Hurricane (3), Severe Ice Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 2008 | Fire | Wildfires |
| January 2006 | Fire | Extreme Wildfire Threat |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Rita |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hartley County?
Hartley County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 33.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 33th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hartley County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $6M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $181K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hartley County compare to other Texas counties?
Hartley County ranks #163 of 254 Texas counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hartley County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Hartley County since 1998, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storms, declared in February 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hartley County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.