Grainger County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 19th
Grainger County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 18.6, 19th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Grainger County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 18.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 19th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $42K in expected annual loss and about 1.12 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $525K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $33K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Grainger County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Grainger County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Grainger County ranks #84 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.12 / yr | $42K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $525K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $33K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.04 / yr | $395K |
| Lightning | Low | 52.04 / yr | $141K |
| Drought | Low | 16.23 / yr | $64K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.08 / yr | $616K |
| Hail | Low | 2.98 / yr | $108K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.25 / yr | $30K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.54 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 5.05 / yr | $25K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.63 / yr | $295K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.47 / yr | $25K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Grainger County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Flood (4), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Grainger County?
Grainger County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 18.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 19th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Grainger County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $42K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $525K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $33K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Grainger County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Grainger County ranks #84 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Grainger County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Grainger County since 1973, most often 6 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Grainger County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.