Rutherford County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Rutherford County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.7, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $135M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Rutherford County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 91.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Rutherford County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $25M in expected annual loss and about 1.16 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.26 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.52 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $135M in expected annual loss for a population of 341K.
Beyond physical exposure, Rutherford County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Rutherford County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 8 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Rutherford County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 1.16 / yr | $25M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 5.26 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | High | 0.52 / yr | $15M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $17M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.18 / yr | $71M |
| Lightning | High | 59.95 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.15 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.63 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.62 / yr | $365K |
| Hail | Low | 3.59 / yr | $460K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $115K |
| Drought | Low | 16.43 / yr | $134K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $39K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $87 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Rutherford County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Winter Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| May 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rutherford County?
Rutherford County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Rutherford County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $25M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Tornado (High, $15M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Rutherford County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Rutherford County ranks #6 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Rutherford County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Rutherford County since 1973, most often 8 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rutherford County's $135M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.