Sumner County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Sumner County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 87.7, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $87M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Sumner County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 87.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Sumner County's expected losses come from tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 0.42 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 6.24 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 1.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $87M in expected annual loss for a population of 196K.
Beyond physical exposure, Sumner County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Sumner County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 13 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Sumner County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | High | 0.42 / yr | $16M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.24 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.21 / yr | $11M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $9M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.14 / yr | $42M |
| Winter Weather | High | 6.16 / yr | $456K |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.68 / yr | $924K |
| Hail | Medium | 3.31 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 57.51 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.58 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.56 / yr | $1K |
| Drought | Low | 4.63 / yr | $97K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $28K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $22K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Sumner County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Winter Storm (2), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| December 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| January 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Sumner County?
Sumner County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 87.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Sumner County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (High, $16M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $11M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Sumner County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Sumner County ranks #7 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Sumner County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Sumner County since 1969, most often 13 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Sumner County's $87M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.