Madison County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Madison County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 92.1, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $91M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Madison County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 92.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Madison County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at High risk — $46M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 0.38 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 1.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $91M in expected annual loss for a population of 99K.
Beyond physical exposure, Madison County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Madison County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 15 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Madison County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | High | 0.01 / yr | $46M |
| Tornado | High | 0.38 / yr | $15M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.89 / yr | $12M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 14.79 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | High | 57.90 / yr | $962K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.83 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.68 / yr | $614K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.87 / yr | $13K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.46 / yr | $11M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $205K |
| Drought | Low | 8.23 / yr | $166K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.16 / yr | $54K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $25K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.97 / yr | $44K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Madison County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Winter Storm (2), Tornado (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Madison County?
Madison County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 92.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Madison County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (High, $46M EAL), Tornado (High, $15M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $12M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Madison County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Madison County ranks #5 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Madison County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Madison County since 1975, most often 15 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Madison County's $91M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.