Montgomery County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 87th
Montgomery County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 87.4, 87th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $78M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Montgomery County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 87.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 87th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.48 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $78M in expected annual loss for a population of 220K.
Beyond physical exposure, Montgomery County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Montgomery County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 14 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Montgomery County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $18M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.32 / yr | $12M |
| Tornado | High | 0.48 / yr | $10M |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.74 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | High | 56.80 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.44 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.21 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.57 / yr | $29M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.58 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.11 / yr | $94K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $2K |
| Drought | Low | 4.52 / yr | $102K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $36K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Montgomery County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Winter Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| December 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Montgomery County?
Montgomery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 87.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 87th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Montgomery County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $18M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $12M EAL), Tornado (High, $10M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Montgomery County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Montgomery County ranks #8 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Montgomery County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Montgomery County since 1975, most often 14 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Montgomery County's $78M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.