Bedford County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 69th
Bedford County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 69.2, 69th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Bedford County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 69.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 69th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 1.11 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.43 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 50K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bedford County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Bedford County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 6 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Bedford County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.11 / yr | $5M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.43 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 4.79 / yr | $137K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.46 / yr | $12M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.35 / yr | $864K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.67 / yr | $111K |
| Drought | Low | 25.96 / yr | $217K |
| Hail | Low | 3.84 / yr | $291K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $110K |
| Lightning | Low | 60.67 / yr | $238K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.42 / yr | $308K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $252 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bedford County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Flood (3), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bedford County?
Bedford County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 69.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 69th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bedford County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bedford County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Bedford County ranks #28 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bedford County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Bedford County since 1973, most often 6 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bedford County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.