Lake County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Lake County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 47.8, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and drought exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lake County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 47.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $396K in expected annual loss and about 13.39 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $463K in expected annual loss and about 15.53 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lake County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Lake County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 8 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Lake County ranks #56 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $6M |
| Drought | Medium | 13.39 / yr | $396K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 15.53 / yr | $463K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.22 / yr | $105K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.53 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.17 / yr | $888K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.32 / yr | $30K |
| Lightning | Low | 57.81 / yr | $82K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.47 / yr | $191K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.15 / yr | $26K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.21 / yr | $17 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.54 / yr | $751K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $429 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lake County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Tornado (4), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| January 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lake County?
Lake County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 47.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lake County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $6M EAL), Drought (Medium, $396K EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $463K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lake County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Lake County ranks #56 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lake County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Lake County since 1973, most often 8 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lake County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.