Washington County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 61th
Washington County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.2, 61th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $23M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Washington County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 61.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 61st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Washington County's expected losses come from landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $45K in expected annual loss and about 0.87 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.19 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 51.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $23M in expected annual loss for a population of 133K.
Beyond physical exposure, Washington County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Washington County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 5 for severe storm events and 3 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Washington County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 0.87 / yr | $45K |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.19 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 51.21 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.14 / yr | $14M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.18 / yr | $169K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $135K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.84 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.06 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Low | 16.73 / yr | $131K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $31K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.69 / yr | $45K |
| Hail | Low | 3.21 / yr | $170K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $45K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Washington County has received 16 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Winter Storm (3), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| March 2023 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Associated Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 16 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Washington County?
Washington County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 61th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Washington County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $45K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Washington County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Washington County ranks #39 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Washington County had?
FEMA records 16 federal disaster declarations for Washington County since 1973, most often 5 for severe storm events and 3 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Washington County's $23M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.