Clay County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 13th
Clay County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 13.3, 13th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Clay County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 13.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 13th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $2K in expected annual loss and about 0.69 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $178K in expected annual loss and about 3.07 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $151K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Clay County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Clay County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 9 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Clay County ranks #86 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.69 / yr | $2K |
| Hail | Low | 3.07 / yr | $178K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $151K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $613K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.78 / yr | $289K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.58 / yr | $30K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $17K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.16 / yr | $406K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.71 / yr | $28K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.82 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Very Low | 4.58 / yr | $12K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 56.21 / yr | $54K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.16 / yr | $35K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Clay County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Tornado (3), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| September 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Clay County?
Clay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 13.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 13th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Clay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Very Low, $2K EAL), Hail (Low, $178K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $151K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Clay County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Clay County ranks #86 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Clay County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Clay County since 1969, most often 9 for severe storm events and 3 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Clay County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.