Cheatham County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN

Low

Composite Risk Score

46.3

National percentile: 46th

Cheatham County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 46.3, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $17M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Cheatham County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 46.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.26 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $211K in expected annual loss and about 0.69 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $17M in expected annual loss for a population of 41K.

Beyond physical exposure, Cheatham County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Cheatham County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 12 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.

Among 95 Tennessee counties, Cheatham County ranks #59 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $17M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 41K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Low $2M/yr
Medium $3M/yr
Medium $211K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$2M
Tornado Medium 0.26 / yr$3M
Ice Storm Medium 0.69 / yr$211K
Cold Wave Low 1.26 / yr$2M
Landslide Very Low 0.79 / yr$3K
Riverine Flood Low 1.29 / yr$9M
Hail Low 3.28 / yr$312K
Heat Wave Low 4.89 / yr$359K
Lightning Low 58.11 / yr$232K
Strong Wind Low 5.87 / yr$545K
Drought Low 5.45 / yr$39K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$6K
Winter Weather Very Low 5.84 / yr$18K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$6K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Cheatham County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Tornado (4), Flood (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
February 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
January 2026Winter StormSevere Winter Storm
June 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
April 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
June 2024Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
December 2023Severe StormSevere Storms and Tornadoes
May 2023Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado
January 2022TornadoSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
December 2021TornadoSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
May 2021TornadoSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cheatham County?

Cheatham County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 46.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Cheatham County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $211K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Cheatham County compare to other Tennessee counties?

Cheatham County ranks #59 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Cheatham County had?

FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Cheatham County since 1975, most often 12 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cheatham County's $17M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.