Cheatham County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 46th
Cheatham County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 46.3, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $17M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Cheatham County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 46.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.26 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $211K in expected annual loss and about 0.69 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $17M in expected annual loss for a population of 41K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cheatham County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Cheatham County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 12 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Cheatham County ranks #59 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.26 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.69 / yr | $211K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.26 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.79 / yr | $3K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.29 / yr | $9M |
| Hail | Low | 3.28 / yr | $312K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.89 / yr | $359K |
| Lightning | Low | 58.11 / yr | $232K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 5.87 / yr | $545K |
| Drought | Low | 5.45 / yr | $39K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 5.84 / yr | $18K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cheatham County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Tornado (4), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| December 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Tornadoes |
| May 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado |
| January 2022 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| December 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| May 2021 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cheatham County?
Cheatham County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 46.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cheatham County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $211K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cheatham County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Cheatham County ranks #59 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cheatham County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Cheatham County since 1975, most often 12 for severe storm events and 4 for tornado events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cheatham County's $17M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.