Marshall County, Tennessee Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · TN
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Marshall County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.4, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by tornado and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Marshall County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 45.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.34 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 34K.
Beyond physical exposure, Marshall County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Marshall County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 8 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 95 Tennessee counties, Marshall County ranks #60 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Tornado | Medium | 0.34 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.11 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.57 / yr | $821K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.36 / yr | $9M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.68 / yr | $108K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $60K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 4.68 / yr | $63K |
| Lightning | Low | 60.99 / yr | $195K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.92 / yr | $187K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 4.53 / yr | $217K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $393 |
| Drought | Very Low | 26.17 / yr | $26K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Marshall County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Winter Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Associated Flooding |
| May 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Marshall County?
Marshall County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Marshall County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Marshall County compare to other Tennessee counties?
Marshall County ranks #60 of 95 Tennessee counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Marshall County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Marshall County since 1973, most often 8 for severe storm events and 2 for winter storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Marshall County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.