Otsego County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 76th
Otsego County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.8, 76th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $32M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Otsego County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 75.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 76th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Otsego County's expected losses come from riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 1.50 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 4.84 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $11K in expected annual loss and about 1.22 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $32M in expected annual loss for a population of 58K.
Beyond physical exposure, Otsego County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Otsego County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 12 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hurricane Henri (hurricane), declared in August 2021.
Among 62 New York counties, Otsego County ranks #27 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.50 / yr | $24M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.84 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.22 / yr | $11K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.58 / yr | $118K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $302K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.30 / yr | $553K |
| Lightning | Low | 28.20 / yr | $207K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $214K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.24 / yr | $979K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.50 / yr | $60K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $158 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.66 / yr | $116K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.21 / yr | $51K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Otsego County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Hurricane Henri in August 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Hurricane (4), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Henri |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| July 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Otsego County?
Otsego County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 76th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Otsego County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $24M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Landslide (Low, $11K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Otsego County compare to other New York counties?
Otsego County ranks #27 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Otsego County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Otsego County since 1993, most often 12 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hurricane Henri, declared in August 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Otsego County's $32M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.