Saratoga County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 73th
Saratoga County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.0, 73th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $53M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Saratoga County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 73.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 73rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $38M in expected annual loss and about 2.93 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $621K in expected annual loss and about 0.56 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 24.99 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $53M in expected annual loss for a population of 235K.
Beyond physical exposure, Saratoga County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Saratoga County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1987, including 5 for severe storm events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Hurricane Henri (hurricane), declared in August 2021.
Among 62 New York counties, Saratoga County ranks #29 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.93 / yr | $38M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.56 / yr | $621K |
| Lightning | Medium | 24.99 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.14 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.23 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.90 / yr | $941K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.66 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 2.31 / yr | $398K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 17.99 / yr | $96K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $36K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $197 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Saratoga County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1987, most recently Hurricane Henri in August 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Snowstorm (5), Hurricane (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Henri |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| March 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Saratoga County?
Saratoga County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 73th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Saratoga County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $38M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $621K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Saratoga County compare to other New York counties?
Saratoga County ranks #29 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Saratoga County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Saratoga County since 1987, most often 5 for severe storm events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Hurricane Henri, declared in August 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Saratoga County's $53M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.