Tompkins County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Tompkins County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.9, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Tompkins County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 73.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Tompkins County's expected losses come from riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $30M in expected annual loss and about 0.89 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $358K in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $355K in expected annual loss and about 2.19 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 105K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tompkins County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Tompkins County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 6 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 62 New York counties, Tompkins County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $30M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $358K |
| Drought | Low | 2.19 / yr | $355K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.52 / yr | $160K |
| Lightning | Medium | 30.40 / yr | $390K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.12 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.11 / yr | $364K |
| Hail | Low | 2.54 / yr | $234K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.55 / yr | $500K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $191K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $187 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.42 / yr | $524K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.79 / yr | $27K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tompkins County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (6), Flood (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| July 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| September 2001 | Fire | Fires and Explosions |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tompkins County?
Tompkins County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tompkins County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $30M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $358K EAL), Drought (Low, $355K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tompkins County compare to other New York counties?
Tompkins County ranks #28 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tompkins County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Tompkins County since 1970, most often 6 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tompkins County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.