San Juan County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
San Juan County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 88.3, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $44M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in San Juan County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 88.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 108.04 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 50.25 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $51K in expected annual loss and about 1.65 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $44M in expected annual loss for a population of 121K.
Beyond physical exposure, San Juan County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: San Juan County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding (fire), declared in June 2024.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, San Juan County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 108.04 / yr | $5M |
| Lightning | High | 50.25 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Medium | 1.65 / yr | $51K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $31M |
| Winter Weather | High | 12.36 / yr | $233K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.05 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $285K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 1.82 / yr | $910K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.01 / yr | $30K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $47 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.06 / yr | $133K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $179K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.08 / yr | $33K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
San Juan County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| June 2012 | Fire | Blanco (Cr 4901) Fire |
| September 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| September 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Ice Storms, Flooding and Heavy Rains |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for San Juan County?
San Juan County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 88.3 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in San Juan County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $5M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $51K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does San Juan County compare to other New Mexico counties?
San Juan County ranks #3 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has San Juan County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for San Juan County since 1977, most often 4 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. San Juan County's $44M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.