Lea County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Lea County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.0, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $45M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lea County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.60 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $999K in expected annual loss and about 47.53 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $45M in expected annual loss for a population of 74K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lea County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Lea County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1992, including 2 for biological events and 2 for fire events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Lea County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $10M |
| Hail | High | 2.60 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 47.53 / yr | $999K |
| Winter Weather | High | 6.41 / yr | $294K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.39 / yr | $25M |
| Drought | Medium | 115.37 / yr | $993K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.03 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.77 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.53 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.45 / yr | $123K |
| Tornado | Low | 1.26 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $22K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $52K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $1 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lea County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1992, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Fire (2), Severe Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| January 2006 | Fire | Southeast New Mexico Fire Complex |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| June 1992 | Flood | Thunderstorms, Hail & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lea County?
Lea County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lea County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $10M EAL), Hail (High, $2M EAL), Lightning (High, $999K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lea County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Lea County ranks #5 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lea County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Lea County since 1992, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for fire events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lea County's $45M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.