Santa Fe County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Santa Fe County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.0, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $49M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Santa Fe County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 86.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $500K in expected annual loss and about 15.92 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 68.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $49M in expected annual loss for a population of 155K.
Beyond physical exposure, Santa Fe County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Santa Fe County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 3 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Santa Fe County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.00 / yr | $13M |
| Winter Weather | High | 15.92 / yr | $500K |
| Lightning | High | 68.06 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.61 / yr | $27M |
| Drought | Medium | 102.85 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 1.04 / yr | $415K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.77 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.48 / yr | $355K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.13 / yr | $734K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $64 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.28 / yr | $203K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.15 / yr | $288K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $12K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Santa Fe County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Fire (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2002 | Fire | Nm - Borrego Fire - 5-23-02 |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| June 1979 | Flood | Severe Storms, Snowmelt & Flooding |
| May 1973 | Flood | Severe Storms, Snow Melt & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Santa Fe County?
Santa Fe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Santa Fe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $13M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $500K EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Santa Fe County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Santa Fe County ranks #6 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Santa Fe County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Santa Fe County since 1973, most often 3 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Santa Fe County's $49M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.