Bernalillo County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 94th
Bernalillo County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 94.4, 94th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $154M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Bernalillo County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 94.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 94th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.53 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $40M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 59.77 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $154M in expected annual loss for a population of 676K.
Beyond physical exposure, Bernalillo County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Bernalillo County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 2000, including 6 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Bernalillo County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 9.53 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $40M |
| Lightning | Very High | 59.77 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.14 / yr | $93M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 1.97 / yr | $6M |
| Hail | High | 0.67 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.28 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $168K |
| Drought | Low | 65.60 / yr | $234K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.07 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.08 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $782 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $38 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Bernalillo County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 2000, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2016 | Fire | Dog Head Fire |
| September 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2011 | Fire | White Fire |
| June 2006 | Fire | Malpais Fire |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| April 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2003 | Fire | Nm-Bosque Fire-06-25-2003 |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Bernalillo County?
Bernalillo County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 94.4 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 94th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Bernalillo County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $40M EAL), Lightning (Very High, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Bernalillo County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Bernalillo County ranks #2 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Bernalillo County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Bernalillo County since 2000, most often 6 for fire events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Bernalillo County's $154M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.