Otero County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Otero County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.7, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $43M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Otero County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 84.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Otero County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $414K in expected annual loss and about 4.86 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 60.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $43M in expected annual loss for a population of 68K.
Beyond physical exposure, Otero County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Otero County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1984, including 12 for fire events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Otero County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | High | 0.01 / yr | $12M |
| Winter Weather | High | 4.86 / yr | $414K |
| Lightning | High | 60.95 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.96 / yr | $27M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.27 / yr | $300K |
| Drought | Medium | 112.94 / yr | $587K |
| Hail | Medium | 0.66 / yr | $558K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.43 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.42 / yr | $690K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $297K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $9 |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.36 / yr | $314K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $162 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.19 / yr | $256K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.44 / yr | $64K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Otero County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1984, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (12), Severe Storm (5), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| June 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding |
| June 2024 | Fire | Salt Fire |
| June 2024 | Fire | South Fork Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2018 | Fire | Soldier Canyon Fire |
| July 2016 | Fire | Timberon Fire |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Otero County?
Otero County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Otero County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (High, $12M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $414K EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Otero County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Otero County ranks #7 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Otero County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Otero County since 1984, most often 12 for fire events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Otero County's $43M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.