Chaves County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 88th
Chaves County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 87.6, 88th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $51M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Chaves County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 87.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 88th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Chaves County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 143.74 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.53 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $401K in expected annual loss and about 5.76 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $51M in expected annual loss for a population of 65K.
Beyond physical exposure, Chaves County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Chaves County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Chaves County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 143.74 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | High | 0.53 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 5.76 / yr | $401K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.50 / yr | $37M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.47 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 50.84 / yr | $753K |
| Ice Storm | High | 0.40 / yr | $448K |
| Hail | Low | 1.50 / yr | $353K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $20K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.16 / yr | $380K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $62K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.02 / yr | $167 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 1.05 / yr | $182K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Chaves County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1998, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| November 2024 | Flood | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| January 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Chaves County?
Chaves County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 87.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 88th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Chaves County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $5M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $401K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Chaves County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Chaves County ranks #4 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Chaves County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Chaves County since 1998, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Chaves County's $51M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.