Doña Ana County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Doña Ana County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 96.1, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $164M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Doña Ana County carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 96.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 73.79 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $133M in expected annual loss and about 2.54 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $828K in expected annual loss and about 2.42 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $164M in expected annual loss for a population of 219K.
Beyond physical exposure, Doña Ana County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Doña Ana County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides (flood), declared in July 2025.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Doña Ana County ranks #1 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 73.79 / yr | $11M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.54 / yr | $133M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 2.42 / yr | $828K |
| Lightning | Very High | 52.09 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | High | 0.41 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.44 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $643K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.04 / yr | $127K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.36 / yr | $530K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.55 / yr | $538 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $182 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $18K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $189K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Doña Ana County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| September 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Ice Storms, Flooding and Heavy Rains |
| September 1972 | Flood | Heavy Rains & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Doña Ana County?
Doña Ana County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 96.1 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Doña Ana County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $11M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $133M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $828K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Doña Ana County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Doña Ana County ranks #1 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Doña Ana County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Doña Ana County since 1972, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Doña Ana County's $164M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.