Cibola County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Cibola County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.4, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Cibola County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 58.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $769K in expected annual loss and about 60.60 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $15K in expected annual loss and about 1.16 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $332K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 27K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cibola County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Cibola County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 2000, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Cibola County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 60.60 / yr | $769K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.16 / yr | $15K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $332K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 14.53 / yr | $113K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.93 / yr | $9M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $475K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $54 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.05 / yr | $996K |
| Drought | Very Low | 78.04 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $35 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.44 / yr | $45K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $42K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $31K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $27K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cibola County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 2000, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| November 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cibola County?
Cibola County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cibola County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $769K EAL), Landslide (Low, $15K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $332K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cibola County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Cibola County ranks #21 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cibola County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Cibola County since 2000, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cibola County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.