Socorro County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 61th
Socorro County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 61.5, 61th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Socorro County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 61.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 61st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Socorro County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $489K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $498K in expected annual loss and about 60.90 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $615K in expected annual loss and about 0.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 17K.
Beyond physical exposure, Socorro County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Socorro County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 2000, including 4 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Socorro County ranks #19 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $489K |
| Lightning | High | 60.90 / yr | $498K |
| Hail | Medium | 0.26 / yr | $615K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.39 / yr | $9M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $680K |
| Drought | Medium | 75.62 / yr | $335K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.38 / yr | $56K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.04 / yr | $50K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $264 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $5 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 2.01 / yr | $327 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.63 / yr | $65K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $143K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $35K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $20K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Socorro County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 2000, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Extreme Cold Temperatures |
| September 2010 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| June 2004 | Fire | Nm-Bernardo Fire-6-18-2004 |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Socorro County?
Socorro County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 61.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 61th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Socorro County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $489K EAL), Lightning (High, $498K EAL), Hail (Medium, $615K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Socorro County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Socorro County ranks #19 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Socorro County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Socorro County since 2000, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Socorro County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.