Colfax County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 58th
Colfax County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 58.5, 58th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Colfax County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 58.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 58th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $639K in expected annual loss and about 68.48 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $182K in expected annual loss and about 20.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 12K.
Beyond physical exposure, Colfax County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Colfax County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 9 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, and Debris Flows (fire), declared in May 2022.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Colfax County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | High | 68.48 / yr | $639K |
| Winter Weather | High | 20.25 / yr | $182K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.87 / yr | $6K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.21 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Low | 1.31 / yr | $112K |
| Drought | Low | 163.31 / yr | $40K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $126 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $72K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.39 / yr | $220K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $35K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.18 / yr | $92K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.40 / yr | $100K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $939 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Colfax County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, and Debris Flows in May 2022. Most frequent causes: Fire (9), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2022 | Fire | Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, and Debris Flows |
| April 2022 | Fire | Cook's Peak Fire |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2018 | Fire | Ute Park Fire |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Fire | Track Fire |
| June 2006 | Fire | Rivera Mesa Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Colfax County?
Colfax County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 58.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 58th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Colfax County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $6M EAL), Lightning (High, $639K EAL), Winter Weather (High, $182K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Colfax County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Colfax County ranks #20 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Colfax County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Colfax County since 1965, most often 9 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Wildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, and Debris Flows, declared in May 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Colfax County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.